Week-long Welcomings from Moosylvania: Sept. 11th through Sept. 17th

September 10, 2016 JanF Community 104

Welcome to The Moose Pond! The Welcomings posts give the Moose, old and new, a place to visit and share words about the weather, life, the world at large and the small parts of Moosylvania that we each inhabit.

Welcomings will be posted at the start of each week (every Sunday morning). To find the posts, just bookmark this link and Voila! (which is Moose for “I found everyone!!”).

The format is simple: each day, the first moose to arrive on-line will post a comment welcoming the new day and complaining (or bragging!) about their weather. Or mentioning an interesting or thought provoking news item. Or simply checking in.

So … what’s going on in your part of Moosylvania?

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NOTE: The comments page will now split off after 20 or so left margin comments with the most recent comments on the current page. To see the older comments, scroll to the bottom of the page and use the link.

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37 Comments

  2. Slept in because we have training & don’t have to be in till 9 (& it’s right by my house, so I don’t even have to leave till right before it). Anyway, hanging out at home. I may walk this evening.

  3. Upper 60s at daybreak, heading for mid 80s – pretty much the high for the week – and mostly sunny at the moment. Rain moving in tomorrow so hope I get at least 15 KWHs today (more would be better of course).

    Hillary’s strategy re: Basket of Deplorables is brilliant. While of course heads are exploding everywhere – especially with the concern trolls on the Left – the conversation has been moved. It’s not “are some of Trump’s supporters deplorable?” but “how many of Trump’s supporters are deplorable?” – and an underneath message of “do you want to be in that basket?” Just brilliant. Heck Yeah, Hillary! :)

    Things are quieter at work right now. Mostly because nobody but us staff are actually here at the moment. I’ll catch up on a few things before the rest get in thus getting a much better start to the day than yesterday. (Not linking either diary unless somebody asks me to, but yesterday’s Pootie Diary was an absolute gem and the progress report – with requests for shares, especially of the widget and Wings’ gallery – on Aji’s house is very promising.) Bright the day, Meeses. {{{HUGS}}}

  4. Good morning, 47 and sunny in Bellingham. Fortunately our furnace is very efficient because it’s turning on in the morning now and I’ve still got windows open upstairs. The house gets stuffy without the fresh air so I’ll wait a week or so before I close the windows and put the screens away.

    I’ve become the nervous voter Sam is writing about…..

    The real news today…downticket

    My reason for generating the best prediction I can is to reduce the noise of campaign news. I thought it would clear mental space for thinking about policies, or downticket issues.

    The Presidential forecast [methods] takes a low-noise snapshot of state polls, then adds possible drift based on recent elections and this year. Because of intense polarization, few voters are movable. The calculation says that Clinton’s win probability is 90%. The Senate forecast does the same [methods], but also factors in Presidential-year or midterm-year bias. It says that Democrats’+Independents’ probability of taking control is 72%, which is in the 20-80% range, meaning that things could really go either way. Other forecasts tend to count uncertainties twice, or to overestimate how movable voters are. Other forecasts are also under commercial pressure to attract eyeballs.

  5. Morning all. A coolish breeze this morning, perhaps we’ll have a break in our heat soon.

    I am kind of depressed this morning thinking about the election – I see DKos’ Senate tracker has the Dems’ chances of taking back the Senate at below 50%. This is terrible news. If Hillary doesn’t have at least at Democratic Senate with her, nothing will change, we’ll have 4 more frozen years, and the mid-terms in 2018 will be a Republican sweep again. arrgh. Oh well, all we can do is work as hard as we can – I just cannot see how Dems can come to the polls and NOT vote for the Dem Senate and House candidates. And if Dems come out, we win.

    Looking forward to hearing the President speak this afternoon – I hope he has some sharp words for all this nonsense about Hillary’s health. And REALLY great economic news – in 2015, household income grew at the fastest rate on record, the poverty rate fell faster than at any point since 1968, and the medically uninsured rate keeps falling. Thanks Obama! No, really, a grateful nation thanks you!

    Ok, everyone have a great day – thinking good thoughts for Diana’s trip abroad!

    • Don’t fret the Senate yet … it is too early. PLUS the polls for down ticket races are not going to be very good, in my opinion. Yes, we need the Senate but we need the presidency more. Put all your energy there and the rest will take care of itself.

      The president’s speech was great! I can’t wait to watch it again in the morning.

  6. Good morning, meese! Wednesday …

    It is 57 degrees in Madison on the way up to 70. Morning fog will give way to mostly sunny skies.

    President Obama gave a speech in Philadelphia that highlighted the economic progress we have made since the recession and issued a scathing rebuke to the candidacy of Donald Trump. I have the video and transcript and will put up a post after I get a few morning projects done.

    Nate Silver, in trying to demonstrate how difficult it is to cover Donald Trump, posited a new unit of measurement, a “mitt”, named after Mitt Romney, to help understand it. One mitt is the level of scandal (and “scandal”) associated with a candidate with Mitt Romney (Barack Obama gets one mitt also). He gives Hillary a 5 mitt rating and Trump gets 50. The media does not know how to scale that up so they generally report on Trump as if he is a 7, slightly more scandalous than Hillary – therefore deserving of additional scrutiny – but not the 50 because they literally don’t know how to report on that. Interesting theory but it does not excuse the fact that their reporting may be enabling a Trump presidency. I saw a few glimmers of hope on Twitter where fact checkers are showing some courage in calling out Trump’s bald-faced lies. No one wants to be Matt Lauer.

    See all y’all later!

  7. Good morning Meese
    Had a long day yesterday – and then got home to a message that my godfather – who lives in Puerto Rico died. He’s been very ill so it was expected but still very sad – for me, and the rest of the family. Am not going down there.

    Have to go to school today for a ribbon cutting ceremony for a newly renovated building that used to house anthropology till they shut it down – because asbestos. The new building is lovely – lots of glass and airy spaces – however, lots of problems already with the high-tech equipment installed – that doesn’t work :(
    Sigh.

    Loved the POTUS speech in Philly.
    Don’t understand the Nate mitts – oh well.

    Off to go browse twitter

    • Nate’s “mitts” essentially say that because Trump is SO awful in so many ways, that the press can’t get their arms around it and so they ignore most of it and compare Hillary and Trump as if there are only a few degrees separating their flaws instead of, really, an exponential difference. I am not buying it as an excuse and neither is President Obama:

      Guys in the back, I’m just telling you the truth about how I feel about this. Do you mind if I just vent for a second?

      You know, you don’t grade the presidency on a curve. This is serious business. And when we see folks talking about transparency — you want to debate transparency? You’ve got one candidate in this race who has released decades’ worth of her tax returns. The other candidate is the first in decades who refuses to release any at all. You want to debate foundations and charities? One candidate’s family foundation has saved countless lives around the world. The other candidate’s foundation took money other people gave to his charity, and then bought a six-foot-tall painting of himself. I mean, he had the taste not to go for the 10-foot version. (Laughter.)

      You want to debate who’s more fit to be our President? One candidate, who’s traveled to more countries than any Secretary of State ever has, has more qualifications than pretty much anyone who’s ever run for this job; and the other, who isn’t fit in any way, shape or form to represent this country abroad and be its commander-in-chief. (Applause.)

      So somehow, as things go on, because we’ve become so partisan, our standards for what’s normal have changed. And Donald Trump says stuff every day that used to be considered as disqualifying for being president. And yet, because he says it over and over and over again, the press just gives up and they just say, well, yeah, you know — okay. They just stop — “I was opposed to the war in Iraq.” Well, actually, he wasn’t. But they just accept it.

      So the bottom line is, is that we cannot afford suddenly to treat this like a reality show. We can’t afford to act as if there’s some equivalence here.

    • Yikes! I apologize for my bad manners … I tend to obsess about the political stuff (as you know).

      Sorry for your loss. I hope his loved ones can be comforted by the knowledge that he is released from earthly pain.

    • {{{Denise}}} – Losing people is always a jolt, even when we expect it. When my mother died a friend said, “She’s just gone where Ma Bell can’t reach her” and that’s as good a way to think of it as any. At least for me. Healing Energy and Love to you.

  8. Yesterday was soooo busy. Basically did a full day’s worth of work in jus the afternoon. I set up 6 new library users (which would have been a busy day on a 8-hour day). The training was interesting. Brain is playing U2 at me, of course. My friend Jim posted a quote from Van Gogh on FB, that I just love:

    “Many people seem to think it foolish, even superstitious, to believe that the world could still change for the better. And it is true that in winter it is some…times so bitingly cold that one is tempted to say, ‘What do I care if there is a summer; its warmth is no help to me now.’ Yes, evil often seems to surpass good. But then, in spite of us, and without our permission, there comes at last an end to the bitter frosts. One morning the wind turns, and there is a thaw. And so I must still have hope.”

    • reminds me of the quote from The Cure At Troy that I love:

      So hope for a great sea-change
      On the far side of revenge.
      Believe that further shore
      Is reachable from here.
      Believe in miracle
      And cures and healing wells.

      Call miracle self-healing:
      The utter, self-revealing
      Double-take of feeling.
      If there’s fire on the mountain
      Or lightning and storm
      And a god speaks from the sky

      That means someone is hearing
      The outcry and the birth-cry
      Of new life at its term.

  9. Mid 60s at dawn, heading for mid 80s today – pretty much like yesterday, sunny in the morning and clouding up in the afternoon, darn it. Only got 11 KWHs yesterday. At least if I get the same today we’ll crest 200 KWHs for the month. Seriously doubt I’m going to get the over 450 for the month I got in 2015. sigh.

    The corporate-owned media is doing what it’s corporate owners pay them to do – Trash Hillary. The fact they have to make up the trash may bother some of them, but not enough to endanger that paycheck. Possibly they are too overwhelmed by the sheer awfulness of Trump to be able to report appropriately – but I think it’s more that it’s very difficult to follow their prime directive of Trash Hillary if they pay any attention to how very deplorable Trump is.

    Gots stuff to do. Will check back later for President Obama’s speech. Bright the day, Meeses. {{{HUGS}}}

  10. Morning all. Cloudy today, I think we have a chance of thunderstorms pretty much the whole week, possibly partly because of this crazy Tropical Storm Julia, which was NOT a TS until it hit land – I don’t think they have a record of that ever happening before. It’s not near me, in southern Ga/SC now, but I think it’s spinning off storms for us. It’s ok, we need the rain.

    The next couple of days should show if the media is actually in the tank for Trump, if we don’t have widespread coverage of several negative Trump stories – the Newsweek cover story this morning of Trump’s international business dealings that pose a security threat if he’s elected, his remark about “50% of the country does nothing”, and the leaked e-mails between Colin Powell and Condi Rice in which Powell calls Trump a “national disgrace”. I’m not surprised Powell thinks that, I’m just really disappointed in him that we only find out through leaked e-mails and not thru his open disavowal of Trump. If we don’t start to see this stuff all over, it will show the broadcast media is trying to get Trump elected, or at least pump him up to keep the race close, for cynical business reasons of their own. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Trump has dirt on broadcast executives and personalities that make them afraid of him.

    Ugh. Going to play WOW all day and try not to obsess about all this. Everyone have a great day!

    • Our old friend weatherdude (@wxdam) mentioned that about TS Julia:

      Tropical Storm Julia, which was NOT a TS until it hit land – I don’t think they have a record of that ever happening before.

      “Never happened before” is unfortunately a near-daily occurrence as we reap the “rewards” from decades of neglect of our earth. I am hoping we can stop it.

      From Bill McKibben last night:

      • What I mostly know about this year is that although it’s (again) the hottest on record, it’s also been cloudier this summer than last summer at least here in my part of mid-continental North America. While in June I only got 3.5 KWHs fewer than June 2015, July 2016 was 71.1 fewer KWHs than July 2016 and August 2016 was 77.9 fewer KWHs than August 2015. And while it’s still possible for September 2016 to meet or beat September 2015’s 458.85 KWHs, at 196.4 and not likely to reach 200 by the end of today (14th) and more clouds moving in for the next week it’s exceedingly unlikely.

  11. Good morning, 52 and clear in Bellingham. We have a tree kerfuffle to resolve. Thanks to an anonymous “citizen complaint” the city has given us 30 days to remove the ivy growing in a very tall fir tree. We’ve been monitoring the health of the tree and managing the ivy as best we can for nearly 40 yrs so when I talked to the public works person (who made the decision to invoke a public nuisance code without even talking to us) he sighed and requested we talk with the city arborist.

    Over the years we’ve lived here I’ve tried to hire someone to remove the ivy, but consensus of the tree pros is that it’s best to leave it alone as the tree is healthy and more importantly it’s too dangerous for a person to work in the tree. So if we do what the city requests we will have a hundred some feet fir tree full of dead ivy branches that can’t be safely removed hanging over the garden and parking area. But if we don’t comply we will be fined and our insurance (should something happen with the tree) could be voided.

    So yesterday, with our son’s help, we cut back all the ivy we could reach and hauled a truck load to the dump. Several neighbors stopped by while we were working and commiserated with our dilemma and public nuisance status so it was good to laugh with them, and to know they were not the source of the complaint.

    I hope reason prevails when we meet with the arborist today because we’ve done the best we can. But I can recommend exhaustion for ivy clipping as an antidote to worrying about the election. We collapsed into bed to tired to worry (as much) about the yam.

    Time for the pool, then I need to channel my anger at what feels like an intrusion into our lives and try to resolve it.

  12. Good morning, meese! Thursday …

    It is 54 degrees in Madison heading towards a high of 75. Mostly sunny skies are in the forecast.

    The Harvest Moon will occur tomorrow afternoon at 3:05pm Eastern. That means that tonight will be at its fullest visible. It is starting to feel like fall – yesterday we had some wonderful breezes and the air conditioning was off all day. There is no better sleep than when you can open windows and hear night sounds.

    I miss Diana! I hope she had an easy travel day and is enjoying visiting with friends and relatives.

    The video that Dee posted – and which I hope goes viral – highlights what is at stake in this election. We need to join forces to make America the kind of welcoming place that the video envisions. The young people are on board for that place but they need an infusion of pragmatism. You have to vote for the Democrat even if that is not your first choice. And you have to vote, you can’t stay home as if you have no stake in the future. In the United States you effect change via the electoral process. Period.

    For those worried by the polls, I dug up an article that Jon Favreau, a former Obama campaign aide, wrote back on August 9th. It mentioned that we were at the high point (post convention) and recommended remembering that when things got tough:

    Campaigns matter and campaigns that register people to vote and then get them to the polls win.

    Hillary’s doctor released a complete summary of her health. My favorite Tweet:

    Eugene Kane ‏@eugene_kane
    Her doctor also noted that “if elected, she will be the healthiest female president of the U.S. in history”.

    Ha! Let’s do it.

    See all y’all later!

  14. 64 at daybreak – I was right about yesterday, didn’t get quite 8 KWHs and thus didn’t quite reach 200 for the month (and haven’t yet actually – still need .2 KWHs) – we did get over an inch of rain which is good. Today is starting out the same. We shall see what we shall see.

    Hillary is in fine shape considering – one heck of a lot healthier than Trump even if she did get a light case of walking pneumonia – and yes, it is totally unfair that she’s being required to publish medical information that is and should be protected by HIPPA laws. But then that’s what she’s fighting to fix – unfair treatment of women and minorities in the world. And most of us women and minorities know it and are With Her because She’s With Us. And that clip Denise posted is wonderful – The kids are all right! :) – and I’ve just posted the link in this morning’s HNV at GOS.

    Got work to do so I’d best get to it. Hope Diana’s having a fun trip. Bright the day, Meeses. {{{HUGS}}}

  15. Good morning, 54 and partly cloudy in Bellingham. Last evening we attended a neighborhood fundraiser for the next Greenways campaign supporting Bellingham’s park system. It was good to focus on the future growth and development of our community parks, but election fatigue was present in the room. The evil yam presence is discouraging to everyone and the concern re GOTV is very real, even for local elections.

    The home we were in is uphill from ours and so I had a good view of our trees. They provide an important sound barrier as well as privacy for our garden so I’m relieved the meeting with the city arborist went well. After seeing our cleanup and being with us in the lower garden where he could see (and feel) the impact of the trees we have a tentative agreement to monitor the trees health and leave the ivy in place for now. This is exactly what we have been doing, but now it needs to be officially sanctioned.

    Another arborist (who works with a tree firm) is coming on Friday to give us an estimate for doing some additional work on the trees and once we have that done the city will cooperate. I know it’s all for the best, but this has been a bit unsettling.

    • Yay for good news on your tree! We should do everything we (reasonably) can to save trees, especially trees that are special to us. Did you see Dee’s story on the Survivor Trees at 9/11 and Oklahoma City? As an adult, I have not stayed long enough in any one place to have trees of a significant size at my homes but I had lots of special trees during my childhood.

  16. Apologies for being late this morning. – almost noon now.

    Got caught up in writing for deadline – then had to handle school stuff over my schedule for next spring being wack. (now fixed)

    Then I got caught up in twitter :)

  17. Good morning, meeses!! Friday …

    It is 66 degrees in Madison with an expected high of 72. I hear thunder rumbling in the distance now and the forecast calls for showers and thunderstorms all day and into the evening hours.

    #ILikeHillary!! Her speech last night at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute hit all the right notes and could not have been clearer in what this election means to the 16 million people who the Republicans want to deport, and to protecting the hard won economic progress that Latino families, including business owners, have made. I have the video (which includes a great speech from the outgoing president!) and will post it shortly. I don’t have transcripts yet for either speech and will add those after I post … I will include links to a few news accounts.

    Hillary also spoke in Greensboro NC yesterday and entered the venue to the song “I Feel Good” … ha! She spoke about her vision for the future and HB2 and … how she feels! Two press conferences yesterday – she’s everywhere!! Later today she will speak to the Black Women’s Symposium

    Hillary Clinton Remarks at Black Women’s Agenda Symposium Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton delivers remarks at the Black Women’s Agenda 39th Annual Symposium in Washington, D.C.

    I don’t see a time but it is being called a “luncheon”. Michelle Obama’s campaign speech will be this afternoon in Fairfax VA at George Mason University. The event says that the doors open at 1pm so the speech is probably around 3pm.

    Meanwhile, Trump is basking in his poll numbers and doubling down on birtherism. He has to! Birthers are his base – he energized the President Obama is The Other and Will Destroy the White Race contingent in America. One of the Tweets I saw yesterday showed a snippet of a letter from a Trumper, it was closed “In Trump,” with the person’s name. He really is their god, their Grand Leader – this is scary stuff.

    The president spoke a the Our Oceans 2016 Conference yesterday and designated another marine national monument, the first one in the Atlantic Ocean. I have some video of the speech that I will post later. Here is the conference video:

    See all y’alls later!

    • Here is the CSPAN link to Michelle Obama’s speech; as I thought 3pm Eastern:

      First lady Michelle Obama speaks to supporters of Hillary Clinton at a campaign rally in Fairfax, Virginia.

      Airing LIVE Friday, Sep 16 2:00pm CDT on C-SPAN

  18. TGIF Meese

    Thank you Jan – saw Greensboro and Hispanic Gala – will look at Black Women’s Agenda when I get home from school this evening.
    Saw this headline when I logged into news
    Julian Assange’s Arrest Warrant in Rape Case Upheld by Swedish Court

    Bernie Sanders event here today – he’s campaigning for and with Zephyr Teachout who is running for Congress as a Democrat- my students are going so my early class will be pretty empty.

    Off to grab more coffee

    • Bernie Sanders never mentions Hillary Clinton except to say that she would “likely” appoint Supreme Court justices who would help overturn Citizens United. He poisoned the young people with his anti-Hillary message and probably hopes for a Trump victory so he can claim that HE would have won – which is bull, he would be crushed like a bug.

      Kevin Drum Don’t Hate Millennials. Save It For Bernie Sanders.:

      Clinton is clearly doing worse among millennials than Obama did four years ago. But it’s a very restricted group of millennials. Over at 538, Harry Enten lays out some survey data which suggests that virtually all of the defection is in the 18-24 age group. Older millennials are supporting Clinton at about the rate you’d expect.

      So what’s the deal with this very young age group? […] I reserve most of my frustration for Bernie Sanders. He’s the one who convinced these folks that Clinton was in the pocket of Wall Street. She gave a speech to Goldman Sachs! He’s the one who convinced them she was a tool of wealthy elites. She’s raising money from rich people! He’s the one who convinced them she was a corporate shill. She supported the TPP! He’s the one who, when he finally endorsed her, did it so grudgingly that he sounded like a guy being held hostage. He’s the one who did next to nothing to get his supporters to stop booing her from the convention floor. He’s the one who promised he’d campaign his heart out to defeat Donald Trump, but has done hardly anything since …

      … most of [the bad polling] can be laid at the feet of Bernie Sanders. He convinced young voters that Hillary Clinton was a shifty, corrupt, lying shill who cared nothing for real progressive values—despite a literal lifetime of fighting for them. Sadly, that stuck.

      Sounds like Hillary is planning on a strong “no third party” push which includes getting Al Gore to stump for her on both climate change and how third party voting can lead to devastating consequences. Most millennials did not (politically) live through the 2000 election which Ralph Freaking Nader tipped to George W. Bush. The Bush Administration literally destroyed lives and middle-class wealth and set the stage for the tea party to rip the heart out of President Obama’s agenda. If they care about the earth, they cannot allow a Republican presidency to roll back the Paris accords and dismantle the EPA.

  19. I was up rather a lot of the night with an upset stomach. There is not strong enough tea in the world. My brain is playing pretty, lyrical Song For Someone, which isn’t helping me stay awake. Sweet love song — if you don’t usually click on my songs because “rock”, click on this one.

    Wanted to do an AIDS Walk diary, but I don’t trust my brain on no sleep for the whole 3am hour & very little after. Will wait till Monday or so. Lucky that after 16 years here, I can do most of my work in my sleep.

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